E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5315.75, up 130.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,385.00, up 462.75

Yesterday, we highlighted Monday’s low volume, relentless selling, but a glimmer of hope that showed up at session’s end. The stage was set for a pivotal Turnaround Tuesday. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were strong early, before finding additional tailwinds from comments Treasury Secretary Bessent made behind a closed-door event that “a trade war with China is unsustainable and will de-escalate soon.” While Bessent noted that talks with China could be a “slog”, some sources have pointed to deals with Japan or India being within reach, which could provide a framework for fast-tracking others. He is expected to speak today at 9:00 am CT and address the state of the financial system.

Things gathered steam after the bell when President Trump said, “Tariffs on China will come down substantially.” There are reports of a Trump-Xi meeting as early as May. The President provided additional calm, saying there are no plans to fire Fed Chair Powell. 

Ahead of the bell, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are up 2.0% and 2.5%, respectively, hitting the highest level since April 15th. They are also testing their 21-day moving averages, an indicator that has been a barrier since breaking below on February 21st. This will mark the fifth test, with the prior four failing. So, how can price action prove constructive? The gap higher last night was above Friday’s intraday high in the E-mini S&P, and this major three-star support at 5357-5359.50 must hold upon a pullback. If not, unchanged could quickly be in the cards, which stands as a rare major four-star support level. However, there is a bullish case to be had too. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5424-5428.25 aligns with the gap close from April 15^th, but the E-mini NQ’s gap is still a resistance area at 18,960. If they can clear these marks, we could see the run extend to the next critical inflection point at….

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